April 1, 2020- by Steven E. Greer, MD
I wrote an essay early on in this non-pandemic that Anthony Fauci, MD of the NIH shut down the economy with some careless words during a congressional briefing. Well, he is back at. This week, he made comments on TV and during the White House briefings that the total number of deaths in this country from the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (also called COVID-19) could be as high as 200,000. However, he has no basis for those comments, as I shall explain below.
As a direct result of Fauci’s comments, President Trump extended his 15-day “social distancing” guidelines to April 30. Whether Fauci has any credible forecasting models to back up his statements or not, it does not matter. The Democrats and their propaganda outlets would impeach President Trump again if he “recklessly lifted safety measure” Fauci knows he has the President of the United States by the balls and seems to be getting high off the power.
What gives me to confidence to say that Fauci is bluffing and simply making up his doomsday numbers? I have my own model based on the Johns Hopkins death rates. If a huge number of people were tested, say 40 million, then at the current positive rates and death rates, 20,000 to 40,000 would die. That is assuming that no new drugs become available. It is also using the skewed high death rates caused by the hot spots in Queens and Brooklyn.
To put that in perspective, 23,000 to 36,000 have died this season from the annual influenza “pandemic” 70,000 will die from pain pill overdoses. 287,000 will die from cancer. 650,000 will die from heart disease, and a whopping 1.3 Million will die from car crashes.
Why should my model have credibility? I built the best finical forecasting models in all of Wall Street (our team was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor magazine). I am also scientist who forensically analyzes junk medical literature to spot the statistical ploys used by the drug companies to get drugs and devices approved. In short, I can spot malfeasance like few others can.
So, back to Tony and his fearmongering. I emailed him and asked him the following:
“Dr. Fauci, I will be on national radio tomorrow. I need to know more about the methods you used to project 200,000 deaths. It is not enough to say that some magical black box formula predicts this. What are your assumptions and driving variables? Thank you.”
Fauci replied by dodging my question and punting to Dr. Birx:
“Dr. Greer: Dr. Birx has been utilizing a number of models including from Imperial College (London) and Chris Murray from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The models indicate that there could be 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the USA. Please remember, as I am sure you are aware, models are only as good as the assumptions that you put into the models. And so, the number that I gave was not a prediction, but a number based on models. Dr Birx did the detailed analyses. Thanks. Best regards, Tony”
I replied:
“Dr. Fauci, This does not answer my question. It reiterates the estimates you spoke about. I am asking you to explain how you derived these outlandish estimates of 200,000 deaths and shed light onto the magical black box you all are using. I am modeling this too. I am an excellent forecaster, having done it on Wall Street. I get 30,000 deaths, worst case scenario, if 40 Million are tested and we have a 5% positive rate. Is this your final non-answer; to dodge the question?
Also, I am going out on a limb here and assuming you have not stepped foot in New York for a long time. How then do you know why the Third-World hospitals in Queens are having such high death rates? Have you considered incompetency?”
I then sent him a second question today and received no reply.
What would be Tony Fauci’s motivation for scaring the world and destroying an economy? He is not some great leader or courageous hero. He is a Deep State Democrat and permanent member of the bureaucracy. At age 79, he should have retired a long time ago. This tells us a lot about his ego.
I believe that several things are going on with Fauci. First, he is simply drunk with the power he has. He sees this crisis as his way of becoming an important person in history. I also believe that he has the full support of the Democrats and their propaganda TV news machines. Fauci will be a hero if he can exacerbate the current recession into a full-blown depression. That might get Trump ousted. Finally, he himself is old and vulnerable to the virus. He might be in a state of panic that is biasing his remarks.
No one but Tony really knows why he is do what he is doing. But he is certainly not basing his fearmongering comments on science. Tony Fauci is like Chicken Little with a Brooklyn accent.
President Trump needs to find some clever way of making him resign. I am sure he has plenty of skeletons in his closet.
Then, the White House needs to tap some smart Wall Street analysts to make accurate forecasting models. I am sure that hundreds of them are doing this right now. Too much money is on the line. I volunteer, Mr. President.